Casualty Catastrophe Analytics: Where We Are Now and Where We Should Be on This Critical Risk

By Stephen P. D'Arcy

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Despite the occurrence of numerous casualty catastrophes that have had a significant impact on the insurance industry, the state of casualty catastrophe modeling lags far behind that of property catastrophes. One reason for this lag is that casualty catastrophes develop slowly, as opposed to property catastrophes that occur suddenly, so that the impact, both financial and psychological, has less of a shock element. Other reasons include the dearth of data and the relative complexity. This paper reviews the history, assesses the current state of models, and suggests steps to improve the industry’s analytics of casualty catastrophes.

Keywords: Casualty catastrophes, catastrophe models, risk-based capital, realistic disaster scenarios, gamma distribution


D'Arcy, Stephen P., "Casualty Catastrophe Analytics: Where We Are Now and Where We Should Be on This Critical Risk," Variance 10:2, 2016, pp. 292-311.

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Mission Statement

Variance (ISSN 1940-6452) is a peer-reviewed journal published by the Casualty Actuarial Society to disseminate work of interest to casualty actuaries worldwide. The focus of Variance is original practical and theoretical research in casualty actuarial science. Significant survey or similar articles are also considered for publication. Membership in the Casualty Actuarial Society is not a prerequisite for submitting papers to the journal and submissions by non-CAS members is encouraged.