Simulation 1—No Outliers		Simulation 2—Outliers
Method	RMSE of Fitted Data	RMSE Relative to the Mean (%)	RMSE of Fitted Data	RMSE Relative to the Mean (%)	Percentage Difference in RMSE
Mean	0.836	0.0	1.226	0.0	46.6
Elastic net with year as factor	0.826	–1.2	1.229	+0.3	48.8
Kalman filter	0.822	–1.7	1.155	–5.8	40.6
Bayesian model	0.651	–22.2	0.887	–27.6	36.3
Additive modela	0.695	–16.9	0.954	–22.1	37.3
RSSM	0.664	–20.6	0.889	–27.4	33.9