Analysis	Severity Trend
	Line of Business	Commercial Auto
	Policy Limits	2,000,000
	Attachment Point	0
	Trend Applied to Limit & Attachment	4.00%
	Number of Years	8
	Claims x Year	10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000
	Observed Trend	4.00%
	Tolerance	0.25%
=Σ[(1) x (2)]	Average Prior	4.00%
(1)	A Priori Trends	-1.00%	0.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	9.00%
(2)	Prior Trend Weight	2.50%	5.00%	7.50%	12.50%	15.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.50%	7.50%	5.00%	2.50%
(3)	Likelihood of Observation	0.00%	0.00%	0.27%	3.87%	14.00%	22.47%	14.93%	3.13%	0.40%	0.00%	0.00%
(4) = (2) x (3)	Joint Probability	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.48%	2.10%	3.37%	2.24%	0.39%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
(5) = (4) / Σ(4)	Posterior Trend Weight	0.00%	0.00%	0.23%	5.60%	24.32%	39.03%	25.94%	4.54%	0.35%	0.00%	0.00%
	Average Simulated Trend	-0.22%	0.61%	1.45%	2.30%	3.16%	4.01%	4.88%	5.75%	6.62%	7.47%	8.35%
	2.5th Percentile	-1.80%	-0.95%	-0.14%	0.68%	1.55%	2.29%	3.15%	3.97%	4.85%	5.63%	6.46%
	97.5th Percentile	1.37%	2.21%	3.08%	3.94%	4.90%	5.76%	6.73%	7.61%	8.48%	9.39%	10.31%
(6) = Σ[(1) x (5)]	Credibility-Weighted Trend Estimate	4.00%