Analysis	Severity Trend
	Line of Business	Commercial Auto
	Policy Limits	100,000
	Attachment Point	0
	Trend Applied to Limit & Attachment	0.00%
	Number of Years	8
	Claims x Year	10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000
	Observed Trend	4.00%
	Tolerance	0.25%
=Σ[(1) x (2)]	Average Prior	4.00%
(1)	A Priori Trends	-1.00%	0.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	9.00%
(2)	Prior Trend Weight	2.50%	5.00%	7.50%	12.50%	15.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.50%	7.50%	5.00%	2.50%
(3)	Likelihood of Observation	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.47%	28.60%	39.20%	2.33%	0.00%	0.00%
(4) = (2) x (3)	Joint Probability	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	4.29%	4.90%	0.18%	0.00%	0.00%
(5) = (4) / Σ(4)	Posterior Trend Weight	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.74%	45.47%	51.93%	1.85%	0.00%	0.00%
	Average Simulated Trend	-0.72%	0.00%	0.71%	1.43%	2.15%	2.86%	3.58%	4.29%	5.00%	5.72%	6.44%
	2.5th Percentile	-1.29%	-0.61%	0.09%	0.80%	1.50%	2.19%	2.88%	3.59%	4.25%	4.97%	5.68%
	97.5th Percentile	-0.12%	0.59%	1.31%	2.05%	2.80%	3.53%	4.26%	5.00%	5.73%	6.48%	7.20%
(6) = Σ[(1) x (5)]	Credibility-Weighted Trend Estimate	5.55%