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Vol. 7, Issue 1, 2013January 01, 2013 EDT

Ruin Probability-Based Initial Capital of the Discrete-Time Surplus Process

Pairote Sattayatham, Kiat Sangaroon, Watcharin Klongdee,
Initial capitalinsuranceclaim processruin probability
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Variance
Sattayatham, Pairote, Kiat Sangaroon, and Watcharin Klongdee. 2013. “Ruin Probability-Based Initial Capital of the Discrete-Time Surplus Process.” Variance 7 (1): 74–81.
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  • Figure 1. Minimum initial capital MIC(α, N, c, {Xn, n≥1}) in the discrete-time surplus process with exponential claims (λ = 1, N = 100)
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Abstract

This paper studies an insurance model under the regulation that the insurance company has to reserve sufficient initial capital to ensure that ruin probability does not exceed the given quantity α. We prove the existence of the minimum initial capital. To illustrate our results, we give an example in approximating the minimum initial capital for exponential claims.

1. Introduction

In recent years, risk models have attracted much attention in the insurance business, in connection with the possible insolvency and the capital reserves of insurance companies. The main interest from the point of view of an insurance company is claim arrival and claim size, which affect the capital of the company.

In this paper, we assume that all the processes are defined in a probability space (Ω, F, Pr). Claims happen at the times Ti, satisfying 0 = T0 ≤ T1 ≤ T2 ≤ . . . . The nth claim arriving at time Tn causes the claim size Xn. Now let the constant c represent the premium rate for one unit time; the random variable cTn describes the inflow of capital into the business by time Tn, and ∑ni=1Xi describes the outflow of capital due to payments for claims occurring in [0, Tn]. Therefore, the quantity

U0=u,Un=u+cTn−n∑i=1Xi

is the insurer’s balance (or surplus) at time Tn, n = 1, 2, 3, . . . , with the constant U0 = u ≥ 0 as the initial capital.

We consider the discrete-time surplus process (1.1) in the situation that the possible insolvency (ruin) can occur only at claim arrival times Tn = n, n = 1, 2, 3, . . . . Thus, the model 1.1 becomes

U0=u,Un=u+cn−n∑i=1Xi

for all n = 1, 2, 3, . . . .

The general approach for studying ruin probability in the discrete-time surplus process is through the so-called Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function; for example, Pavlova and Willmot (2004), Dickson (2005), and Li (2005b, 2005a). All of these articles study (or calculate) the ruin probability as a function the initial capital u ≥ 0. In this paper, we shall work in the opposite direction, i.e., we study the initial capital for the discrete-time surplus process as a function of ruin probabilities.

2. Main results

Let {Un, n ≥ 0} be a surplus process (as in Section 1) that is driven by the claim process {Xn, n ≥ 1}. We consider the finite-time ruin probabilities of the discrete-time surplus process in Equation (1.2) with the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) claim process {Xn, n ≥ 1}. We let FX1(x) be the distribution function of X1, i.e.,

FX1(x)=Pr{X1≤x}

The premium rate c is calculated by the expected value principle, i.e.,

c=(1+θ)E[X1]

where θ > 0 which is the safety loading of insurer.

Let u ≥ 0 be an initial capital. For each n = 1, 2, 3, . . . , we let

φn(u):=Pr{U1≥0,U2≥0,U3≥0,…,Un≥0∣U0=u}

denote the survival probability at the times n. Thus, the ruin probability at one of the time 1, 2, 3, . . . , n is denoted by

Φn(u)=1−φn(u)

Definition 2.1.

Let {Un, n ≥ 0} be a surplus process which is driven by the claim process {Xn, n ≥ 1} and c > 0 be a premium rate. Given α ∈ (0, 1) and N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .}. Let an initial capital u ≥ 0, if ΦN(u)≤α then u is called an acceptable initial capital corresponding to (α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}). Particularly, if

u∗=minu≥0{u:ΦN(u)≤α}

exists, u* is called the minimum initial capital corresponding to (α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}) and is written as

u∗:=MIC(α,N,c,{Xn,n≥1})

2.1. Ruin and survival probability

We define the total claim process by

Sn:=X1+X2+⋯+Xn

for all n = 1, 2, 3, . . . .

Lemma 2.1.

Let N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .} and c > 0 be given. If {Xn, n ≥ 1} is an i.i.d. claim process, then ΦN(u) is increasing and right continuous and ΦN(u) is decreasing and right continuous in u.

Proof. The survival probability at the time N as mentioned in (2.3) can be expressed as follows.

φN(u)=Pr{S1≤u+c,S2≤u+2c,…,SN≤u+Nc}=Pr(N⋂k=1{Sk−kc−u≤0})=E[INk−kc−u≤0}⋂k=1]=E[N∏k=1I{Sk−kc−u≤0}]

where

IA(x)={1,x∈A0,x∉A

for all A  ℝ. Since I{Sk−kc−u≤0}(ω)=I(−,0](Sk(ω)−kc−u) for all ω ∈ ,

φN(u)=E[N∏k=1I(−∞,0](Sk−kc−u)]

For each a ∈ ℝ and u ≥ 0, we obtain

I(−∞,0](a−u)={1,u≥a0,u<a

then 𝕀(−∞, 0](a − u) is increasing and right continuous in u. This implies that ∏Ni=1I(−∞,0](ai−u) is also increasing and right continuous in u, moreover, this bounding function is identically equal to 1, where ak ∈ ℝ, k = 1, 2, 3, . . . , N. Therefore, by the monotone convergence theorem, we have

limv→u+φN(v)=limv→u+E[N∏k=1I(−∞,0](Sk−kc−v)]=E[limv→u+N∏k=1I(−∞,0](Sk−kc−v)]=E[N∏k=1I(−∞,0](Sk−kc−u)]=φN(u).

Therefore, φN(u) is increasing and right continuous. Moreover, we can conclude that ΦN(u)=1−φN(u)) is decreasing and also right continuous.

Theorem 2.2. Let N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .} and c 0 be given. If {Xn, n ≥ 1} is an i.i.d. claim process, then

limu→∞φN(u)=1 and limu→∞ΦN(u)=0. 

Proof. First, we will show the following properties

N⋂i=1{Xi≤u+c}⊂N⋂i=1{Si≤Nu+ic}.

Let ω ∈⋂N{Xi ≤ u + c} be given. For each i ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . . , N}, we have Xi(ω) ≤ u + c and

Si(ω)=i∑k=1Xk(ω)≤iu+ic≤Nu+ic

That is, ω ∈ {Si ≤ Nu + ic}. Therefore, (2.12) follows. Next, since the process {Xn, n ≥ 1} is i.i.d., then

Pr(N⋂i=1{Xi≤u+c})=N∏i=1Pr{Xi≤u+c}=(F(u+c))N.

By Equation (2.8), we have

φN(Nu)=Pr(N⋂i=1{Si≤Nu+ic})

By (2.12), (2.14) and (2.15), we obtain

(F(u+c))N≤φN(Nu)≤1

Since (F(u + c))N → 1 as u → ∞, then φN(Nu) → 1 as u → ∞. Thus, we conclude that φN(u) → 1, and ΦN(u)=1−φN(u)→0 as u → ∞. This is the proof.

Corollary 2.3. Let α ∈ (0, 1), N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .} and c 0 be given. If {Xn, n ≥ 1} is an i.i.d. claim process, then there exists ũ ≥ 0 such that, for all u ≥ ũ, u is an acceptable initial capital corresponding to (α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}).

Proof. We consider by case. Case 1: ΦN(0)≤α. Since ΦN(u) is decreasing, then ΦN(u)≤ΦN(0)≤0 for all u≥0. Case 2: ΦN(0)>α. By Theorem 2.2 , we have ΦN(u)→0 as u→∞. Thus, there exists ˜u>0 such that ΦN(˜a)<α. Since ΦN(u) is decreasing, we conclude that ΦN(u)≤ΦN(˜u)<α for all u≥˜u.

2.2. Recursive formula of ruin probabilities

From Theorem 2.2 and Corollary 2.3, we know that the small ruin probability can be controlled by a large initial capital. In this part, we shall describe the upper bound of ruin probability with negative exponential. In order to prove the following lemma, we shall use an equivalent definition of the ruin probability which is given as follows:

Φn(u)=Pr(max1≤k≤n(k∑i=1Xi−ck)>u)

Theorem 2.4. Let N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .}, c 0 and u ≥ 0 be given. If {Xn, n ≥ 1} is an i.i.d. claim process, then the ruin probability at one of the times 1, 2, 3, . . . , N satisfies the following equation

ΦN(u)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞ΦN−1(u+c−x)dFX1(x)

where Φ0(u) = 0.

Proof. We will prove (2.18) by induction. We start with n = 1. Since Φ0(u) = 0 for all u ≥ 0, then

∫u+c−∞Φ0(u+c−x)dFX1(x)=0

This proves (2.18) for n = 1. Now assume that (2.18) holds for n = k ≥ 1. Then

Φk+1(u)=Pr(max1≤s≤k+1(n∑i=1Xi−cn)>u)=Pr(X1−c>u)+Pr(max2snsk+1(X1+n∑i=2Xi−cn)>u,X1≤u+c)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞Pr(max1sn≤k(x+n∑i=2Xi−cn)>u)dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞Pr(max2snsk+1(n∑i=2Xi−c(n−1))>u+c−x)dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞Pr(max2snsk+1(n−1∑i=1Xi−c(n−1))>u+c−x)dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞Pr(max1≤nsk(n∑i=1Xi−cn)>u+c−x)dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞Φk(u+c−x)dFX1(x).

which proves (2.18) for n = k + 1 and concludes the proof.

Corollary 2.5. Let N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .}, c 0 and u ≥ 0 be given. If {Xn, n ≥ 1} is an i.i.d. claim process, then the ruin probability at one of the times 1, 2, 3, . . . , N satisfies the following equation:

Φ0(u)=0,Φ1(u)=1−Pr(X≤u+c),ΦN(u)=ΦN−1(u)+ΘN(u)

where

ΘN(u)=∫u+c−∞(∫u+c−x−∞ΦN−2(u+2c−x−v)dFX1(v))dFX1(x)

for all n = 2, 3, 4, . . . .

Proof. Let N ≥ 2, by Theorem 2.4, we obtain

ΦN(u)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞ΦN−1(u+c−x)dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞(ΦN−2(u+c−x)+∫u+2c−x−∞ΦN−2(u+2c−x−v)dFX1(v))dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c−∞(ΦN−2(u+c−x)dFX1(x)+∫u+c−∞(∫u+2c−x−∞ΦN−2(u+2c−x−v)dFX1(v))dFX1(x)=ΦN−1(u)+∫u+c−∞(∫u+2c−x−∞ΦN−2(u+2c−x−v)dFX1(v))dFX1(x).

This completes the proof.

Corollary 2.6. Let N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .} and u ≥ 0. Assume that {Xn, n ≥ 1} is a sequence of exponential distribution with intensity λ 0, i.e., X1 has the probability density function f(x)=λe−λx. The obtained ruin probability is in the following recursive form

Φ0(u)=0,Φn(u)=Φn−1(u)+(u+c)λn−1(u+nc)n−2(n−1)!e−λ(u+nc)

for all n = 1, 2, 3, . . . , where the initial capital u ≥ 0 and premium rate c E[X1] = 1/λ.

Proof. We will prove (2.21) by induction. We start with n = 1, Φ1(u) = 1 − Pr {X ≤ u + c} = 1 − (1 − e−λ(u+c) = e−λ(u+c).

This proves (2.21) for n = 1. Next we assume that (2.21) holds for n = k ≥ 1. From Theorem 2.2, we have

Φk+1(u)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c0Φk(u+c−x)dFX1(x)=Φ1(u)+∫u+c0(Φk−1(u+c−x)+(u+2c−x)λk−1(u+(k+1)c−x)k−2(k−1)!e−λ(u+(k+1)c−x))dFX1(x)

=Φk(u)+∫u+c0(u+2c−x)λk−1(u+(k+1)c−x)k−2(k−1)!e−λ(u+(k+1)c−x)dFX1(x)

and

Θk+1(u)=∫u+c0(u+2c−x)λk−1(u+(k+1)c−x)k−2(k−1)!=e−λ(u+(k+1)c−x)e−λxdx(k−1)!∫−λ(u+(k+1)c)0∫u+c(u+(k+1)c−x)k−2(u+(k+1)c−x−(k−1)c)dx=λke−λ(u+(k+1)c)∫u+c0(k−1)!((u+(k+1)c−x)k−1+(k−1)c(u+(k+1)c−x)k−2)dx=(u+c)λk(u+(k+1)c)k−1k!e−λ(u+(k+1)c),

which proves (2.21) for n = k + 1 and completes the proof.

2.3. Existence of minimum initial capital

A quantity α, which was discussed in the previous section, can be described as the most acceptable probability that the insurance company will become insolvent. As a result of Corollary 2.3, we obtain that {u≥0:ΦN(u)≤α} is a non-empty set. This means that we can always choose an initial capital which makes the value of ruin probability not exceed α. Since the set {u≥0:ΦN(u)≤α} is an infinite set, then there are many acceptable initial capital corresponding to (α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}). In this section, we will prove the existence of

MIC(α,N,c,{Xn,n≥1})=minu≥0{u:ΦN(u)≤α}

Lemma 2.2. Let a, b and α be real numbers such that a ≤ b. If f is decreasing and right continuous on [a, b] and α ∈ [f(b), f(a)], then there exists d ∈ [a, b] such that

d=min{x∈[a,b]:f(x)≤α}.

Proof. Let

S:={x∈[a,b]:f(x)≤α}

Since α ∈ [f(b), f(a)], i.e., f(b) ∈ α ≤ f(a), then b ∈ S. That is, S is a non-empty set. Since S is a subset of closed and bounded interval [a, b], then there exists d ∈ [a, b] such that d = inf S. Next, we consider by case.

Case 1: d = b. We know that b ∈ S, thus b = min S.

Case 2: a ≤ d b. Since d = inf S, then there exists dn ∈ S such that

{d} \leq {d}_{n}<{d}+1 / {n}

for all n ∈ ℕ. For each n 2/(b − d), we have

{d}<{d}+1 / {n}<{d}+\frac{b-d}{2}=\frac{b+d}{2}<{b} .

This means that d + 1/n ∈ (d, b) ⊂ [a, b] for all n 2/(b − d). Since f is decreasing and dn ∈ S, we get

f(d+1 / n) \leq f\left(d_{n}\right) \leq \alpha

i.e., d + 1/n ∈ S for all n 2/(b − d). Since f is right continuous at d, we have

f(d)=\lim _{n \rightarrow \infty} f(d+1 / n) \leq \alpha

Therefore, d ∈ S, i.e., d = min S. This completes the proof.

Theorem 2.7. Let α ∈ (0, 1), N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .}, and c 0. Then there exist u* ≥ 0 such that

u^{*}=\operatorname{MIC}\left(\alpha, N, c,\left\{X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\}\right)

Proof. We consider by case. Case 1: \Phi_N(0) \leq \alpha, we have

\operatorname{MIC}\left(\alpha, N, c,\left\{X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\}\right)=0

Case 2: \Phi_N(0)>\alpha, by Corollary 2.3 , there exists \tilde{a}>0 such that \Phi_N(\tilde{a})<\alpha, i.e., \alpha \in\left[\Phi_N(\tilde{a}), \Phi_N(0)\right]. Since \Phi_N(u) is decreasing and right continuous, by Lemma 2.2 there exists u^* \in[0, \tilde{u}] such that

u^{*}=\min _{u \in 0, \bar{i}]}\left\{u: \Phi_{N}(u) \leq \alpha\right\}=\min _{u \in 0, \infty)}\left\{u: \Phi_{N}(u) \leq \alpha\right\}

That is,

u^{*}=\operatorname{MIC}\left(\alpha, N, c,\left\{X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\}\right)

Next, we will approximate the minimum initial capital MIC(α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}) by applying the bisection technique for the decreasing and right continuous function.

Theorem 2.8. Let α ∈ (0, 1), N ∈ {1, 2, 3, . . .}, and v0, u0 ≥ 0 such that v0 u0. Let \left\{u_n\right\}_{n=1}^{\infty} and \left\{v_n\right\}_{n=1}^{\infty} be a real sequence defined by

\left\{\begin{array}{ll} v_{k}=v_{k-1} & \text { and } u_{k}=\frac{u_{k-1}+v_{k-1}}{2}, \\ & \text { if } \Phi_{N}\left(\frac{u_{k-1}+v_{k-1}}{2}\right) \leq \alpha \\ v_{k}=\frac{v_{k-1}+u_{k-1}}{2} & \text { and } u_{k}=u_{k-1}, \\ & \text { if } \Phi_{N}\left(\frac{u_{k-1}+v_{k-1}}{2}\right)>\alpha \end{array}\right.

for all k = 1, 2, 3, . . . . If \Phi_N\left(u_0\right) \leq \alpha<\Phi_N\left(v_0\right), then

\lim _{k \rightarrow \infty} u_{k}=\operatorname{MIC}\left(\alpha, N, c,\left\{X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\}\right) \tag{2.25}

and

0 \leq u_{k}-\operatorname{MIC}\left(\alpha, N, c,\left\{X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\}\right) \leq \frac{u_{0}-v_{0}}{2^{k}} \tag{2.26}

for all k = 1, 2, 3, . . . .

Proof. Obviously, \left\{u_n\right\}_{n=1}^{\infty} is decreasing and \left\{v_n\right\}_{n=1}^{\infty} is increasing, moreover, vk ≤ uk for all k = 1, 2, 3, . . . . Thus, \left\{u_n\right\}_{n=1}^{\infty} and \left\{v_n\right\}_{n=1}^{\infty} are convergent. Since

0 \leq u_{k}-v_{k}=\left(u_{0}-v_{0}\right) / 2^{k} \rightarrow 0 \text { as } k \rightarrow \infty,

then there exists u* ∈ [v0, u0] such that

\lim _{k \rightarrow \infty} u_{k}=\lim _{k \rightarrow \infty} v_{k}:=u^{*} \tag{2.27}

Since \Phi_N(u) is decreasing and \Phi_{N}\left(v_k\right)>\alpha for all {k}=1,2,3, \ldots, then \Phi_N(u)>\alpha for all {u}<{u}^*. Since \Phi_N(u) is right continuous and \Phi_N\left(u_k\right) \leq \alpha for all {k}=1, 2,3, \ldots, then

\Phi_{N}\left(u^{*}\right)=\lim _{k \rightarrow \infty} \Phi_{N}\left(u_{k}\right) \leq \alpha \tag{2.28}

Therefore,

u^{*}=\operatorname{MIC}\left(\alpha, N, c,\left\{X_{n}, n \geq 1\right\}\right) . \tag{2.29}

For each k = 0, 1, 2, . . . , we have vk ≤ u* ≤ uk. This implies that

\begin{array}{c} 0 \leq u_{k}-u^{*} \leq u_{k}-u^{*}+u^{*}-v_{k} \\ =u_{k}-v_{k}=\frac{u_{0}-v_{0}}{2^{k}} . \end{array} \tag{2.30}

This completes the proof.

2.4. Numerical results

We provide numerical illustrations of the main results. We approximate the minimum initial capital of the discrete-time surplus process (1.2) by using Theorem 2.8 in the case of {Xn, n ≥ 1} a sequence of i.i.d. exponential distribution with intensity λ = 1, by choosing model parameter combinations θ = 0.10 and 0.25, i.e., c = 1.10 and c = 1.25, respectively; and α = 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3.

Table 1 shows the approximation of MIC(α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}) with u25 as mentioned in Theorem 2.8, choosing v0 = 0 and u0 = 20, and \Phi_N(u) is computed from the recursive form (2.21).

Table 1.Minimum initial capital MIC (α, N, c, {X_n, n ≥ 1}) in the discrete-time surplus process with exponential claims (λ = 1)
N α = 0.1 α = 0.2 α = 0.3
θ = 0.10 θ = 0.25 θ = 0.10 θ = 0.25 θ = 0.10 θ = 0.25
10 4.31979 3.39733 2.89299 2.09364 1.99866 1.29821
20 5.80757 4.13270 3.98629 2.58739 2.84099 1.65474
30 6.79110 4.47565 4.69130 2.80479 3.37378 1.80597
40 7.52286 4.66050 5.20540 2.91736 3.75643 1.88242
50 8.09889 4.76749 5.60309 2.98061 4.04866 1.92467
100 9.81693 4.92644 6.74520 3.07093 4.86621 1.98377
200 11.13546 4.94953 7.56253 3.08341 5.42576 1.99174
300 11.60284 4.95021 7.83409 3.08377 5.60493 1.99197
400 11.79769 4.95024 7.94308 3.08378 5.67545 1.99197
500 11.88611 4.95024 7.99136 3.08378 5.70634 1.99197
1,000 11.96919 4.95024 8.03565 3.08378 5.73435 1.99197
5,000 11.97291 4.95024 8.03757 3.08378 5.73554 1.99197
10,000 11.97291 4.95024 8.03757 3.08378 5.73554 1.99197

Figure 1 shows the approximation of MIC(α, N, c, {Xn, n ≥ 1}) for the various values of α with u25 as mentioned in Theorem 2.8. Here we choose v0 = 0, u0 = 20, and parameter combinations θ = 0.10, θ = 0.25, i.e., c = 1.10 and c = 1.25, respectively.

Figure 1
Figure 1.Minimum initial capital MIC(α, N, c, {X_n, n≥1}) in the discrete-time surplus process with exponential claims (λ = 1, N = 100)

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